MIAMI -- Tropical Wave Fred in the Gulf, is still highly disorganizedbut expected to re-develop into a tropical depression or storm Sunday, with landfall in northwest Florida, Alabama or Mississippi Monday. The system is highly disorganized but the center is about 480 miles south southeast of Pensacola.
Warnings will be posted Sunday. Fred could bring rain to the Keys and parts of South Florida Sunday, as well as seven inches or more in parts of the Big Bend and Panhandle Sunday night into Tuesday.
Meantime, hurricane forecasters are also watching Tropical Storm Grace, nearing Guadeloupe. Grace is moving more slowly acros the eastern Caribbean at 20 miles per hour, but could bring heavy rains and mudslides to Puerto Rico, the Donmincan Republic and especially
Haiti, which suffered a magnitude seven earthquake early Saturday morning. The long range track shows Grace in the southern Gulf Thursday.
Here are the NHC statements on Fred and Grace:
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021
...REMNANTS OF FRED EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from
Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the
progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be
required for portions of this area early Sunday.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near
latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest is expected to begin later tonight and continue
through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on
Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the
northern Gulf coast Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression or
tropical storm on Sunday, with gradual strengthening expected while
it moves over the Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
RAINFALL:
Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce
the following rainfall amounts:
Through today...
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
Through Monday...
Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches.
From Sunday night into Tuesday...
The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 10 inches.
Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6
inches.
Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could
lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts.
From Tuesday onward...
Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of
the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and
Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area.
SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to
spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the
coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Please consult products from your local weather office for more
details.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through Sunday night
over parts of the western Florida Peninsula.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021
...POORLY ORGANIZED GRACE NOW MOVING A BIT SLOWER...
...HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES REMAINS A
PRIMARY THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 62.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the entire coast of
Haiti.
The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis,
and Montserrat, and the British Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
* Sint Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Samana
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Cabo Caucedo
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from the Haitian border to
Samana
* Entire coast of Haiti
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor
the progress of Grace. Additional watches and warnings could be
required for this area tonight or on Sunday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Grace was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 62.4 West. Grace is now
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A continued
west-northwest motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next several days. On the forecast track, the
center of Grace is expected to pass near the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico on Sunday, near or over the Dominican Republic Sunday
night and Monday, and then near or over Haiti Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.
Grace is likely to weaken while it moves near and across the Greater
Antilles Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico tomorrow, and in the Dominican Republic tomorrow night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in the
Dominican Republic tomorrow night and Monday.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts Saturday into Tuesday:
Over the northern Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban
flooding.
Over Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream
flooding and possible mudslides.
Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 7 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead to
flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into
Tuesday.
By mid to late next week heavy rainfall from this system could
impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
Photo: NHC